Building on its work on issue-based future scenarios for the state, California 100 in partnership with Institute for the Future released today a toolkit on Mega Scenarios that cut across all issue areas and explore plausible futures ten, thirty, and 100 years into the future
Already, California has seen several unlikely scenarios come to pass, including the worst global pandemic in over a century and a war in Europe that is exacerbating inflation in a variety of ways. This Toolkit aims to get Californians more prepared for scenarios like these. In a workshop held this morning, California 100 and IFTF held a workshop to get a sample of Californians to react to each of the Mega Scenarios. These scenarios, in addition to the thirteen policy and scenario reports already completed will inform the work of listening sessions involving the California 100 Commission and various stakeholder groups this summer.
“Scenarios are very useful tools that can help Californians be better prepared for what might come our way, including incredible opportunities as well as challenges and threats,” said Karthick Ramakrishnan, executive director for California 100. “We are thrilled to partner with IFTF on designing Mega Scenarios that build on the important work of our research partners on issue-based reports and scenarios for the future, by thinking about a broader set of forces that have the potential to affect every aspect of California life..”
“The stakes have never been higher. IFTF’s Mega Scenarios Toolkit provides the much needed new narratives to help decision makers across California explore the emerging risks and opportunities for the State,” said Marina Gorbis, IFTF Executive Director. “As the fifth-largest economy in the world, decisions made in California today will have far-reaching implications for the country and the world – tomorrow.”
“With this Toolkit we ask Californians to stretch their minds about what’s possible in our state’s short-term and long-term future and how they react to various scenarios,” said Henry E. Brady, director of research for California 100. “We will use this work and the research we released this Spring as we continue to set the foundation for our final vision and strategy report in 2023.”
Earlier today, California 100 and IFTF hosted a workshop to get reactions from Californians to the scenarios.
TEN-YEAR MEGA SCENARIOS
The first section of the Toolkit asks Californians to think about what kind of a state we want to be ten years from now? Should we double-down on statewide government action and an expanded social safety net, or pursue more limited government policies and private investments to solve social problems?
THIRTY-YEAR MEGA SCENARIOS
The next set of scenarios focuses on 30 years, and asks what role California will play in the world as we grapple with the consequences of climate change, global immigration, and new technologies. This set of scenarios poses alternative possibilities for the geopolitical makeup of the world in the 2040s and 2050s, with different roles for California and the United States to lead or follow.
100-YEAR MEGA SCENARIO
The final scenario for California looks 100 years out and invites us to imagine how the state might evolve or transform for the next generation of Californians, based on the decisions we make today.